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Last week’s Democratic National Convention, for the most part, accomplished its mission. Delegates left the convention amped up, ready to fight this November, and in a worrying amount of instances, also infected with COVID-19.
Those first two points, however, weren't wholly ubiquitous.
Many delegates to the DNC, as part of the Uncommitted National Movement, had called for the convention to host a Palestinian-American to endorse Vice President Kamala Harris’ re-election campaign and to raise the need for a ceasefire in Gaza. Their calls went unrealised.
The Uncommitted delegates, in a statement posted to X (formerly known as Twitter), commended the Harris campaign and the DNC for inviting the family of an American hostage held in Gaza, and urged the convention to “to reject a hierarchy of human value” by platforming a Palestinian to speak to similar concerns.
When that request was rejected, the atmosphere quickly soured for many. The Muslim Women for Harris-Walz organisation shut down during the convention’s third day, citing the DNC’s refusal and writing that “the family of the Israeli hostage that was on the stage tonight has shown more empathy towards Palestinians and Palestinian-Americans than our candidate or the DNC has”. The organisation has since walked back some of that initial statement — continuing to urge its supporters to vote for Harris-Walz to avoid a Trump presidency, and requesting to meet with the Harris campaign — but their initial statement should still concern the Democratic Party.
After the DNC, one thing has been made clear. The Democratic Party, for better or worse, is doing its best to appeal to middle-of-the-road voters. Harris’ speech at the DNC was one harsh on foreign policy and border security, and largely skirted conversations around issues like climate change. The convention itself featured appearances from many prominent Republicans and former members of the Trump administration, and just yesterday, Harris pledged to appoint a Republican to her cabinet if elected in November.
The move is likely familar to many Brits — a calculated move to the centre designed to pick up voters who seek to abandon the Republican, or Conservative, parties. In fact, leading Labour figures including ousted-MP and now-director of the think tank ‘Labour Together,’ visited Chicago for the DNC to provide the Democrat with tips on how to win elections.
As Ashworth claims, Democratic operatives “intend to make the same arguments” on issues such as border security that Labour did. That might not work as well for them as it did for Starmer. And when you crunch the numbers, it didn’t work all that well for Starmer either. The Labour victory this July was not one caused by an exodus of Conservative voters to the Labour party. YouGov’s Dylan Difford shared provisional data about a week post-election appearing to show that more 2019 Conservative voters died between 2019-2024 than voted for Labour. More Conservative voters no-showed than voted Labour. And Labour lost more votes to parties like the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party than they gained from the Tories.
Michigan provides a clear portrait as to how the uncommitted voter movement might affect the Harris Campaign. Have a look at this video with a sample group below
In a parliamentary system like Britain’s, that works out for Starmer. In a presidential system like America’s, things are different. Harris has received much more support from Republicans and moderates than Starmer earned from the Tories, a fact which can likely be owed to America’s two-party system. But if the Harris campaign doesn’t take steps to mend an already tumultuous relationship with the party’s left-wing, the same loss of support that Starmer faced may be the death knell for the Democratic Party.
With the election near-tied in crucial swing states , Team Harris should be looking to win back the hundreds of thousands of voters who voted Uncommitted during the primaries in protest of Biden’s foreign policy (particularly support for Israel’s war on Gaza). Winning back these voters is possible — and in the states that matter most, it appears Harris can win them back without alienating most voters. Recent YouGov polling commissioned by the Institute for Middle Eastern Understanding Policy Project, for instance, shows that Democrats and independents in crucial swing states are overall more (or equally) likely to vote for Harris come November if she, or Biden, were to impose an arms embargo on Israel in response to reported human rights abuses in Palestine.
Those numbers skyrocket amongst those who voted Biden in 2020 and claim to be undecided or voting for other candidates in 2024 — voters that Democrats need to win back to win the November elections. Even if an arms embargo doesn’t land on the table, the most crucial step for Democrats is to listen — their current “hawkish” attitude to foreign policy isn’t landing with the Democratic Party’s most crucial demographics And if nothing changes, this “hawkish” policy will repel voters that Harris needs to turn out — and may not recover those numbers in moderates.
With Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s endorsement of Donald Trump, Harris doesn’t benefit from a Reform Party-type splitter of right-leaning voters . And a two-party system means that she can’t win with a low vote share.
In 2000, the US elections were decided by one state — Florida. With a margin of just 537 votes, Bush clinched a national victory after the Supreme Court blocked a recount. But in Florida, over 97,000 voters voted for Green Party candidate Ralph Nader — and Nader himself has cited polls that show if he never ran, over 12,000 of them would have voted for Gore, changing the course of the election.
This time around, Democrats have something to learn from. In mid-August, Palestinian-American human rights attorney and professor Noura Erakat was set to join the Green Party ticket as Vice President — on the condition that the Greens withdraw from the race if the Biden-Harris administration secures a ceasefire or supports an arms embargo. The Green Party declined, and Erakat decided not to join the ticket. But her argument speaks to a wider truth: even the smallest change of course could do enough to win back voters that Democrats seem to be losing. It would be an unforced error for Democrats to continue ignoring this sentiment in the run-up to the November elections.
It may not be at the DNC, but Uncommitted voters will speak their minds this November. Harris needs to give them a reason to vote for her.
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